A storm is brewing…a storm of technology that will completely destroy the known world in its path.
Between growing high-speed broadband connectivity (fixed line, Wi-Fi, wireless), the rapid proliferation of ‘smart devices’…and the simultaneous fall in prices of both, we are heading into a world that is very soon going to be completely CONNECTED. And by connected, I don’t mean the simple voice connectivity of telephony…
Among others, the two big trends galloping towards us at warp speed are Online Video and Online Retail. They are going to totally recast the world we’ve become familiar with for the past hundred years. Under threat are conventional broadcast television and traditional physical retail stores.
Already, 40% of television content viewed in the US is not viewed on TV but on smart devices. While TV and Movies remain the biggest creators of original, high quality video content, this content is increasingly consumed beyond the conventional television set and movie hall. In many ways, the new technology is just the latest in a long line of technological innovation – right from the VCR, to DVD, to DTH, to Internet, to Mobile and now via High Speed Broadband to Smart Touch Devices.
So it’s not the change per se, but the enormity and rapidity of the change afoot that is the big deal. In earlier times, media and information were elitist and exclusive. You needed to be rich and literate to consume media. Movies, and then radio & television, became the first of the “mass” media, reaching out to larger audiences. But it was still restricted to geographies – the West evolved much faster, with the rest of the world playing catch up. The Internet then became the great new hope, but connectivity remained suspect. Now, with new broadband technology, the dispersion across geographies, demographics and cultures is almost instantaneous, and it is very, very inclusive. Everyone, everywhere is invited to Facebook and YouTube!
Meanwhile, the world of physical retail is under increasing pressure with rising costs – and the suddenly easy and awesome experience of online shopping that a sexy touch device can deliver makes life very complicated for them. Online Retail over comes physical barriers of geography, product depth and home delivery. It has been said about Retail that the three most important things are location, location and location. Now with high-speed connectivity and life-like touch, you can take your store to every customers home, to their bedroom, to their hammock…you can make shopping the ultimate impulse purchase and even more guilt free therapy. You see, you browse, you select, you buy, you pay…and you don’t feel guilty immediately because it will arrive into your life a couple of days later 🙂 and you can return it!
All this becomes possible because of the magical smart touch devices that allow you to consume video, shop, browse, communicate, network, stay connected – anywhere, anytime – with just an easy swish and slide!
As always, transitions are messy affairs. Never a drop-dead date, never black & white, instead lots of grey. Neither TV nor Store Retail is going to roll over and play dead. But all businesses & empires go through the rise, decline and fall – and this is the decline. It will be a slow decline, it will happen at varying speeds in different parts of the world. In India, for example, we’re still resisting the arrival of foreign big box retailers in physical retail. But even as we do that, the online world seeps into our lives every day.
In another 10 years, more than 4 billion people will be connected to the Internet. More than 2 billion people will have access to high speed broadband. More than 1 billion people will have smart touch devices. In another 20 years…you do the math.
Yes…a perfect storm is brewing 🙂
SAMEER NAIR 